From DiscoverNikkei.org
Philip Mauceri, Japan and Peru in the Fujimori Era: The Ties That Bind
Page 10 of 10
With President Fujimori's poll ratings in August 1997 at an all time low of 27 percent, an economic slowdown beginning and democratic institutions still fragile, the likelihood of political instability in Peru is high. Japan clearly recognizes that political instability in Peru remains an inhibiting factor to expanding relations.28 As a way to lessen the impact of uncertainty on its interests in Peru, Japan needs to emphasize that its relations are with Peru and its people rather than any single administration. A forceful stand against press censorship and human rights violations as well as contacts with opposition leaders in Peru would be an important step in signalling Japan's long-term interest in Peru's democratic stability.
Finally, there is a strong asymmetry in the relation between Japan and Peru. Peru has little importance in Japan's overall foreign political or economic relations, even though Japan has become Peru's second largest trading partner. The growing dependence of Peru on Japanese trade, aid and good will carries with it the pitfalls inherent in any dependent relation. Peru's exports to Japan are still largely raw materials whose price and demand fluctuate according to market demand. This pattern of trade tends not to result in any serious technology transfers or to significantly reduce levels of poverty and over the long term can become a source of discontent.
Despite the limitations mentioned above, Peru-Japan relations are likely to grow and deepen. Historic ties and a search for new markets and allies outside traditional regions in a globalized setting argue for an expanded relationship. With its large Nikkei population and location on the Pacific, Peru is ideally situated to be a bridge between Japan and Latin America. How quickly and deeply these ties develop will be shaped by both structural factors (i.e. U.S. hegemony in Latin America and Peru's position as a primary product exporter) as well as on the political choices made on both sides of the Pacific.
28. Ambassador Morihisa Aoki noted in a speech before Peruvian business leaders that the attacks on foreign investments during the Velasco and García administrations are likely to impede a rapid increase in Japanese interests in Peru. "En Voz Alta." Caretas. August 22, 1996. p. 22.